Prime Minister Narendra Modi&a;nbsp;lifted India up at home and abroad. But he may still lose his job in the next elections, because of his ruling style.
Before Modi assumed office, India&a;rsquo;s economy was barely growing. It was near the bottom of major international rankings, next to its neighbors, Pakistan and Bangladesh.
After Modi assumed office, India&a;rsquo;s economy began growing at robust rates, beating mighty China. It climbed23 spots in the World Bank&a;rsquo;s 2018 Ease of Doing Business ranking to the 77&l;sup&g;th&l;/sup&g;&a;nbsp;position, up from 100&l;sup&g;th&l;/sup&g;in 2017.
And that came on top of another jump of 30 spots in the 2017&a;nbsp;&l;a href=&q;http://www.doingbusiness.org/rankings?region=south-asia&q; target=&q;_blank&q;&g;ranking&l;/a&g;&a;nbsp;from the previous year.
&l;img class=&q;size-large wp-image-19669&q; src=&q;http://blogs-images.forbes.com/panosmourdoukoutas/files/2019/03/koyfin_20190315_074411931-1200x600.jpg?width=960&q; alt=&q;&q; data-height=&q;600&q; data-width=&q;1200&q;&g; India&s;s Real GDP
That&a;rsquo;s certainly remarkable progress that set India apart from Pakistan and Bangladesh, which ranked 136 and 176, respectively.
&l;span&g;&a;ldquo;From Fragile 5 in BRICS, India has propelled to fastest growing economy in the world,&a;rdquo; observes &l;/span&g;Ananthu Raju, a mechanical engineer and political analyst.
International investors took notice. Foreign capital began flowing into the country again, and equity markets made many Indians millionaires.
&l;img class=&q;size-large wp-image-19668&q; src=&q;http://blogs-images.forbes.com/panosmourdoukoutas/files/2019/03/koyfin_20190315_074054255-1200x600.jpg?width=960&q; alt=&q;&q; data-height=&q;600&q; data-width=&q;1200&q;&g; Indian Shares
In most democratic countries around the world, Modi&a;rsquo;s record would make re-election a sure thing. But not in India.
The reason? Modi has been ruling India as a strongman. And India isn&a;rsquo;t a country for strongmen, according to Ruchir Sharma, Head of Emerging Markets and Chief Global Strategist at Morgan Stanley Investments. &a;ldquo;Until a year ago, Modi looked like the sure winner. He had sidelined all rivals in the BJP and overshadowed Gandhi, and the rest of the opposition,&a;rdquo; says Sharma in an article published in the March/April 2019 Foreign Affairs issue. &a;ldquo;He was running the most centralized administration India had seen for decades, with decisions large and small funneled through the prime minister&a;rsquo;s office.&a;rdquo;
But centralization doesn&a;rsquo;t work in a democratic country, where elections are determined in &l;em&g;mofussil&l;/em&g;, &a;ldquo;provincial areas beyond the mega-cities of Mumbai and New Delhi,&a;rdquo; according to Sharma. In fact, &l;em&g;mofussil &l;/em&g;is turning against Modi, as evidenced by the results of December elections in three states.
And that has Modi fighting for his job. &a;ldquo;This is exactly how Indian voters like their leaders: on the edge and fearing for their jobs,&a;rdquo; adds Sharma. &a;ldquo;No other democracy tosses out its ruling party as India does. Ever since the country became a true multiparty democracy, in the 1970s, two out of three governments at the central and state levels have lost their bids for reelection.&a;rdquo;
Still, there&a;rsquo;s another reason this time around: Modi&a;rsquo;s policies failed to touch the masses, as was discussed in a previous piece here.&a;nbsp;&a;nbsp;In fact, the average Indian is worse off under Modi.
That&a;rsquo;s according to a Gallup&a;nbsp;&l;a href=&q;https://news.gallup.com/poll/241790/indians-life-ratings-depend-india-live.aspx?g_source=link_NEWSV9&a;amp;g_medium=NEWSFEED&a;amp;g_campaign=item_&a;amp;g_content=Indians%27%2520Life%2520Ratings%2520Depend%2520on%2520Which%2520India%2520They%2520Live%2520in&q; target=&q;_blank&q;&g;survey&l;/a&g;&l;u&g;&a;nbsp;last month&l;/u&g;, which finds that Indians&s; rating of their current lives nationwide are the worst in recent record, an average of 4.0 on a 0-to-10 scale in 2017 &a;ndash; down from 4.4 back in 2014.
Things were even worse in the rural areas, which determine the outcome of Indian elections.
&a;ldquo;Beginning in 2015, rural Indians began reporting increased difficulty paying for food,&a;rdquo; says another Gallup&a;nbsp;&l;a href=&q;https://news.gallup.com/poll/241790/indians-life-ratings-depend-india-live.aspx&q; target=&q;_blank&q;&g;report&l;/a&g;. &a;ldquo;That year, more than one in four rural Indians (28%) reported not having enough money to pay for food at some point that year (compared with 18% of urban Indians who reported the same hardship).&a;rdquo;
There&a;rsquo;s one more reason -- the persistence of corruption. Five years ago, the Indian people gave&a;nbsp;Narendra Modi&a;nbsp;a&a;nbsp;chance to realize his big promise: clean&a;nbsp;up corruption in&a;nbsp;India. Today, Modi&a;rsquo;s promise remains a promise. Corruption is still thriving in India, in all&a;nbsp;the&a;nbsp;usual places as also discussed in a previous piece here.
Apparently, governments come and go, and some things never change for India.
&a;ldquo;Indians would have been in similar conditions if there would have been Modi or No Modi. The only difference that happened during his initial days was Demonetization,&a;rdquo; says Digpal Singh Narang, a retail data analyst.&a;nbsp;&l;span&g;&a;ldquo;To a certain extent, it might have helped the government to find stashed cash at home. However, it impacted common middle-class families a lot and richer people got away easily. Apart from that, India is growing at slow pace and in same direction like it was with other government leaders in the past.&a;rdquo;&l;/span&g;
&l;/p&g;
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